What Does The Fed Minutes Mean For The Bitcoin Price?

SEC Approval for Bitcoin ETFs and Its Impact on InvestorsThe minutes for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in September left the Bitcoin price hanging because it is unclear whether there would be another 50 basis points rate cut or not. Information release of the Fed minutes governmental mortgage backed securities of its September meeting helps to portray that 50 bps rate cut in the FOMC meeting of November is not inevitable. 

Further, it will create more confusion in the market and negative sentiment for Bitcoin price which is negative. The current market situation is also influenced by the upcoming US presidential elections.

The released minutes of The Fed’s September meeting have now significantly lowered expectations about the possibility of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in November. This offer a bearish outlook about the Bitcoin price since the market was anticipating a 50 bps rate cut after fed chair Jerome Powell opened the door for it following the September FOMC meeting.

More Market Uncertainty in Septembers Plan on Feds Minutes For September Meeting

Another bad for the Bitcoin price is the more uncertainties in the market that are brought by the Fed September minutes. Until now market participants were very sure about another 50 bps cut in the US Federal Fund rate at the next FOMC meeting scheduled in November.

But the September FOMC minutes indicate that market participants cannot be overly complacent about a rate cut let alone a 50 bps rate in November. The Fed officials said in the FOMC meeting that they will pay attention to “the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook” when considering the monetary policy.

To this, the Committee said that they would be willing to fine-tune monetary policy if there emerged risks that could slow down its objective of reaching 2% inflation.

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Fed Minutes Add Uncertainty to Bitcoin Market Amid Focus on CPI and Labor Data

As reported by the Fed minutes the information, Committee’s assessment will encompass a broad set of information. This will comprise of imminent changes in “labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and International relations”.

Some of the information that the Fed will be focusing on includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of inflation data which is due tomorrow. The US CPI data was already expected, though the focus shifted to it, after the US Jobs data released in the previous week, which killed prospects for a 50 bps rate cut.

These hopes too have been further blurred by the Fed September minutes, leaving traders unsure if more capital should be pumped into the flagship crypto. Such market uncertainty is not suitable for the Bitcoin price because investors will feel uncomfortable investing during the time.

Upcoming US Presidential Elections Also Another Factor

This is caused by the approaching US presidential is also playing its role in the prevailing volatility in the market. Apart from the Fed minutes and the future expectations on emission of rates, a critical concern for investors is the result of the elections.

There is normally high fluctuation of prices in the market during this season, thus it is a good time for most traders to look for ways of protecting their capital. In an amusing turn of events, Bernstein analysts are of the opinion that price of Bitcoin may rise in the lead up to the elections if Donald Trump’s prospects of success at the voting booth heighten.

According to the latest Polymarket odds, Donald Trump has edged over 7%, with the ex-US president having 53% chance to become the next US president compared to Kamala Harris who has 46%. Some of these Berstein analysts assert that BTC could launch to as high as $90,000 in future in the event that Trump wins.

But as history has it, the price of BTC will surge to another ATH after the elections, regardless of who is victorious in the elections. I read in the Fed minutes that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for November 6 – 7, with the US elections to be held on the 5th.

On the other hand, one should note that a well-known trader Peter Brandt expects BTC to reach $135k by August or September 2025. This could be around the time when BTC reaches its highest in the market cycle in this industry.